How do you know whether a task ends in one Pomodoro (25 minutes) or it takes four Pomodoro? In other words, how can we train the estimation ability?

Estimation ability is gradually trained by estimating, executing, comparing the actual time taken to estimate and thinking the reason for the gap. (*22)

There are at least two items to estimate.

How many Pomodoros each task takes.

How many Pomodoros you can do in a day.

To get the skill to estimate how many Pomodoros each task takes, you need to know how much amount of tasks you can do in one Pomodoro.

Estimate the amount of tasks that you can do in a Pomodoro, actually do them. Observe the gap, such as it did not end in a Pomodoro, or conversely, it ended early. With those experience accumulated, your estimation accuracy gradually increases.

You can estimate how many Pomodoros you can do in a day by actually trying it every day. However, let's emphasize there is a common misunderstanding: "1 Pomodoro is 25 minutes, and I work 8 hours a day. So I can do 16 Pomodoros in a day." Measure it actually by yourself. Most people can not do 16 Pomodoros in a day.

Humans can not do 16 Pomodoros in 8 hours. Even though humans can run 50 meters in 7.5 seconds, they can not run 1500 meters in 225 seconds. The run 7.5 seconds for 50 meters is the average record of the first year high school in Japan, but 225 seconds for 1500 meter is 28 seconds faster than the Japanese girls best. It is the same in the concentration. Even if we can keep concentration for 25 minutes, we can not keep the same degree of concentration for 8 hours.

In the preface of "agile time management," the author said he thought he could do 12 Pomodoros in a day, but at the most 8 Pomodoros was a realistic line. I feel the same. I can do 4 to 8 Pomodoros in a day.

As the accuracy of the estimate increases, you can see the size of the task and the size of the time you can use. If you accept a task request which takes one Pomodoro, you need to send another task of one Pomodoro to tomorrow. It is like a game to allocate limited resources.

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Footnotes:

*22

To observe the gap between estimation and the actual is similar to the verification of understanding; to observe the gap between the expected result and the actual result.

*23

The way to improve quality through the cycle is also called the PDCA cycle, taking the initials of Plan Do Check Adjust. Refer to the (Column) PDCA cycle.